1.2. Kingdom divided against itself…
On the contrary to the leading countries of West and East who managed to successfully develop their economies in the past ten years after 1998 crisis Russian society accepted conditions of socio-economic crisis as a way of life for many years since back-stage junta hiding behind M. S. Gorbachev came into power. None the less Russia has also been affected by current global financial crisis and has to find means to recover from it.
A few weeks ago Russian prime-minister V.V. Putin asked business community the following question: When oil prices in the world are falling why then in Russia oil and petrochemical products prices are not following the trend?” Russian petrochemical market responded to the question posted by the head of parliament by lowering prices, in particular: petrol prices dropped 1-2 rubbles per litre (5-8%).
Due to the fact that oil and its products are included in price-list basis - fall in its prices opened opportunities for manufacturers and sellers of goods (in conditions of lack of solvent demand on products with earlier announced prices) to be able to lower their prices not risking bankruptcy, and therefore support manufacturing and consumer exchange of goods in conditions of monetary deficit in times of financial crisis. But these opportunities were immediately eliminated by Central Bank of Russia.
“Bank of Russia (Central Bank or CB) demonstratively decreased by 30% rate of Russian ruble to currency basket and increased refinancing rate to 12% - when traditionally right anti-crisis measure is considered to be interest rate decrease. CB’s official explanation to such measure – the need to fight outflow of the capital – did not convince analytical experts” (source: http://www.newsru.com/finance/12nov2008/unpredictable.html).
- Reduction in Russian currency exchange rate improves situation for export but only worsens it for import. If this measure is adequate to public needs in situation when Russia imports up to 70% of food supply and even bigger part of industrial good – is an open question. To answer it we must analyze balances of goods exchange and financial statements of both external trade and internal inter-industrial and inter-regional commerce. But there is not doubt that Central Bank is not trusted anymore to manage Russian ruble exchange rate in the best interest of socio-economic development or Russia since CB became a “state within the state” in 1991.
- Interest rate increase creates additional debt, which we know we will not able to pay and that is aimed at worsening the crisis and destroying V.V. Putin’s influence on stabilization of oil products market.
It does not matter if Central Bank’s actions are manifestation of bad intentions of its perverse comprehension of the nature of macroeconomic processes, the consequences are all the same – crisis aggravation.
Besides for one more time it became clear that Russian bank sector as a whole (and not only CB) is not influenced by patriotism: commercial banks that received government aid to overcome liquidity crisis immediately distinguished themselves in the banks statistics by increasing purchases of foreign currencies and transferring financial assets on overseas bank accounts, although financial aid was given to support the real sector of Russian economy. Then representatives of the real sector started to complain that they were having hard times in obtaining credits and in consequence were forced to save money by decreasing production volumes, cutting salaries and laying off people. Hence crisis is spread through chains of exchange of goods both in real sector and in end-consumption sector.
Correspondingly one of the problems of overcoming the crisis in Russia consists in overriding Central Bank and whole banking sector to the state and its crisis recovery policy. This task might prove to be more difficult than “forcing Georgia to the peace”.
But main problem is inadequacy of historic science, sociology and economics, which is supported and reproduced by educational system in these fields, by Russian Academy of Science (RAS), Higher Attestation Committee (HAC) and scientific councils that award candidate and doctorate degrees in history, sociology and economics – those are the “gurus” officially acknowledged by state officials as intelligent and competent professionals. And as we know those are big on giving advices…
Because crisis is primarily a manifestation of intellectual and creative bankruptcy of historically formed social science, in order to advance in development our country needs to:
- Turn RAS into community of interest, suspending its unofficial status of “ministry of science”
- Annul already awarded degrees of candidates and doctors of science and HAC and respective science councils were dismissed for being useless
- Deviate from historically formed educational standards, primarily in history, sociology (inc. psychology and economics). Those need to be qualified as giving students an opportunity to learn about alternative opinions and views. It is only through such sort of deviation from standards that new knowledge, adequate to new needs of social development, can be introduced in the system of development of new generation of specialists.
On the one side abolition of scientific degrees will free many people from necessity to waste enormous amount of time and effort on writing dissertations and participating in its defense procedures, even more because dissertation defense is only a basis for receiving “official statements” to the fact that degree-holders are certified “know-it-all’s by default”. On the other hand this measure will force at least part of officials to stop covering their expensive irresponsibility (funded by tax-payers) with science degrees and titles of brought in “guru”-consultants, and try to understand on their own the heart of the matters and learn to tell real professionals and experts whose advice can be trusted from those sweet-talkers who take “consulting” for if not a horn of abundance than at least for guaranteed free lunch.
Besides, as we mentioned in analytical note of IP USSR “It is not worth making the same mistake twice” in the series “On the current moment” № 11 (71), 2007, “socio-economical theories of liberal-bourgeois nature are principally not suited for realization of “Putin’s Plan”, because rise of Russia as a great state and major player of global politics is deeply repugnant and unacceptable for leaders of liberal-bourgeois West. Therefore based on liberal-bourgeois sociological and economical principles, these theories will inevitably become legal cover for political sabotage of “Putin’s Plan” by liberal-bourgeois branch of masonry”
This is exactly what is happening at the moment: Russia was affected by the crisis “thanks to” its economic science, to its officials ideologically dependent on the science, to its banker and stock brokers and to its morally rotten “elite” in general. And now, actions of state officials, banking and stock moguls in Russia only aggravate the crisis, which in the best case scenario will slow down realization on “Putin’s Plan” if not kill it in the bud because current management will lead the country to full-on economic disaster. On the day when G-20 started its summit in Washington, newsru.com source published the following information:
“Judging by the poll of working Russians about 30% of companies were affected by the crisis: 9% of the respondents say that their employer had delayed salary payments, 6% indicate that there have been a few cases of lay-offs. At the same time 60% of employed respondents(35% of all respondents) sate that their colleagues and employees of various companies have not experienced any effects of the crisis. In addition, sociologists of FOM (Public Opinion Foundation) point out that these figures haven’t changed in the past week.
At the same time monitoring of personal well-being of respondents (in their own opinion) shows that for now only insignificant number of Russians were personally affected by the crisis. Today, according to FOM’s research, 37% of polled state that in the past 2-3 months state of their personal finances has worsened. Here sociologists point out that even before the crisis (in summer and in the beginning of autumn) this indicator has been constantly at 30% mark.” (http://www.newsru.com/arch/russia/15nov2008/kri.html).
Those “powerful ideas”, necessity of which declared D.A. Medvedev in Washington, have already been voiced by Concept of Public Safety (CPS) organization, but were ignored by the regime since parliamentary hearings in 1995. Apparently the regime does not need them. And massive preparation of executive and governmental personnel is and will still be carried out based on ideas that were proven harmful.
And this is despite the fact that lingering crisis of post-soviet society in Russia obliges the state to educate executive personnel not based on new ideas (whether already published or not formed yet, but in some way alternative to traditional thinking) but based on methodology of figuring out new ideas adequate to current reality by each individual facing one or another problem.
For now, the regime have not taken any measures as to lead the country out of algorythmics of development of times of troubles, which was described in analytical note of IP USSR "Time of troubles: its origin, rise, overcoming…” from “On the present moment” series #11 (59) 2006. The regime continues leading the country to the collapse of “mass-elite” culture. And the regime cannot avoid responsibility and say that it has no knowledge about it: photograph on the left shows Vladislav Surkov, First Deputy Chief of Staff of V. Putin’s Administration as he holds one of the issues of above mentioned article. As you can see the issue is in quite large format (A3 paper to be exact) and designed in contrast colors (designed to be noticed) – so obviously such article can be either ignored or taken into consideration.
To learn more about similarities in personalities of V. Putin and B. Godunov see analytical note of IP USSR “Egoists are doomed to be and die as slaves…” in the “On the present moment series” #5 (65), 2007.
To comment on it in the light of the events happened after it was printed – it is necessary to add that the beginning of the end of reign of B. Godunov was an economic crisis – several years of bad harvest, that caused famine in many regions of the country. Then B. Godunov opened state granary to the people, but was not able to organize efficient allocation of the grain. It resulted in quick rise of mass speculation, possibly fueled by Godunov’s political opponents, which only aggravated the situation. Very soon after that Godunov died and (not taking into account 4 years long reign of V. Shuisky, a.k.a. Vasili IV of Russia) Russian tsardom was taken over by a man who called himself Dimitriy and who according to the prevailing belief of historic community was playing the role of somebody he was not (in other words False Dimitriy I)
There are two main reasons for the fall of Godunov’s regime:
- On the one hand – he was not practicing violent elimination (“slaughter”) of his political opponents, which was the favorite practice of Tsar Ivan The Terrible (also he was one of the contestants in “Name of Russia” project, the analogue of “100 Greatest Britons”)
- On the other hand – Godunov failed to establish his own pool of personnel, which he could have trusted to help him move “un-slaughtered” political opponents from the field of politics to more “domestic” activities
- In addition, ordinary people at the time were not interfering with politics, being too involved in their “domestic/routine” issues, but were actively spreading nonsense and irresponsible rumors “he killed the little tsarevitch (young heir)…”.
As a result – the uprise of Time of troubles
Possibility that financial crisis will put an end to Putin-Medvedev regime is also a hope of their many political opponents (inc. G. Kasparov, B. Nemtsov and others). And therefore it seems logical that the opposition and its allies (both inside Russia and abroad) will make a lot of effort to advance development of current economic disaster. In this connection economic ignorance of state officials and many entrepreneurs may well become both an instrument and a cover for well calculated sabotage in order to stop which it is objectively necessary to turn to stronger measures, then just verbal admonition and appeals to the conscience and common sense of saboteurs and fools-their allies; and even more so – not years-long court trials which only serve to feed parasite-attorneys such as G. Reznik – those are not adequate measures to stop sabotage (measures have to be quick and efficient).
In connection with this though we would like to quote an analytical note of IP USSR from December 31 2007 “On discharge of destructive anti-Russian matrix”, which a year ago explicitly warns:
“But the rumors that all evil events of the past are the fault of “Godunov” – is a “humanist factor”, which is capable of rising the trouble only in the specific sub-section of Russian intelligentsia. In order to motivate sufficient number of people to raise trouble one thing is necessary – financial crisis and inevitably following it – socio-economic crisis, which is capable of wrecking “Putin’s Plan”: we need to remember that even having state debt, due to the efforts of Putin’s regime the situation in the country is rather stable, but private entrepreneurs were put into such conditions that for many years it was more profitable for them to take credits in foreign banks.”
In other words – the history is repeating itself, at least on the surface:
- The regime principally does not “slaughter” its opponents
- There are no signs of establishing executive personnel pool, based on new alternative ideas and principles, which is necessary for “pushing” the fools and saboteurs into “domestic” routine
- Meanwhile, simple people are occupied by the same “domestic routine”, not interfering into “tsars business”, but spreading nonsense and irresponsible rumors: “Buildings in Moscow were blown up to start second Chechen war; they served polonium-flavored tea to Litvinenko, potential opposition to the regime; they killed truth-seeking Politkovskaya; they bankrupted “Ukos” and are “marinating” prisons ardent idealists-opponents – Khodorkovsky and pregnant Bakhmina, meanwhile they rob the people and hide money in offshore accounts…”
What in that situation is done by means of non-public politics, carried out based on discipline of internal corporations, special services and their periphery in the society – is still an open question, which everyone answers to the degree of their own perception of the world and understanding of it.
But in looking for such kind of answers it is utterly important not to turn one’s own thoughts into the ranks of conspiracy theories.
- None the less the regime will face the consequences of its actions, because personnel is a crucial factor. And personnel that received inadequate education and having flawed morale and ethics will do harm…
- In addition the people are not entirely innocent in their financial suffering – every nation deserves the leaders that they either purposefully chose or let them be chosen…
- And God does not help those who do not help themselves